# How is the Completion Probability of a work item calculated?

 1 Yoshihisa Komai (300●24●22) | asked Feb 13 '14, 4:01 p.m. edited Feb 13 '14, 5:05 p.m. by Millard Ellingsworth (2.5k●1●24●31) Could anyone let me know know the calculation formula of Completion Probability? I looked at following articles but I was not able to figure out the calculation formula of Completion Probability. https://jazz.net/forum/questions/87776/2x-rtc-planning-features-in-4x https://jazz.net/library/article/594 Comments Millard Ellingsworth commented Feb 13 '14, 5:17 p.m. FORUM ADMINISTRATOR / JAZZ DEVELOPER As both of your references indicate:  The following aspects are considered when the completion probability is computed: Effective Estimate, Minimal Estimate, Maximum Estimate, and Schedule Sequence (after what items is this item planned). I looked through the Info Center and work items related to "Completion Probability" and could not find any details. Are you seeing what you consider an issue with the calculation? Can you provide more details on your plan and why you thing the calculation does not reflect your situation?  Yoshihisa Komai commented Feb 13 '14, 6:02 p.m. I want to get  following kind of answer so that I can clearly understand how Completion Probability works. https://jazz.net/forum/questions/18287/how-does-team-concert-determine-individual-progress User 1: 134/162 = 0.82 ~0.8 -> 0.8 - 0.8 = 0 (On Track) (Bar will be green as both ratios (realtime/worktime) are equal) User 2: 48/48 = 1 -> 0.8 - 1 = -0.2 -> (Behind) Expected Work Done= (48 * 0.2) - 0 = 9.6 ~ 10 User 3: 76/88 = 0.86 ~0.9 -> 0.8 - 0.9 = -0.1 (Behind) Expected Work Done= (88 * 0.2) - 12 = 5.6 ~ 6